by Brian Hague, CFA | Sep 22, 2023 | Economics, Enterprise Risk Management, Lending, Risk Management, Strategy
Our Q2 outlook called for an economic downturn commencing in 2024. However, based on the strength of more recent data, we are revising our forecast. It now appears that the Fed may succeed in engineering a soft landing, a feat that has eluded the central bank in the...
by Brian Hague, CFA | Jul 7, 2023 | Economics, Enterprise Risk Management, Risk Appetite Assessment, Risk Management, Strategy
With the media-manufactured “systemic banking crisis” apparently behind us, the bond market has returned its focus to inflation data. As a result, yields have returned to near March levels, and the inversion in the curve has reached its steepest point this cycle....
by Brian Hague, CFA | Apr 10, 2023 | Economics, Enterprise Risk Management, Strategy
Data from the first quarter of 2023 is beginning to show cracks in the U.S. economy’s performance. While headline inflation has receded, households are still beset with higher prices. The Fed has continued to firm monetary policy, but market interest rates declined in...
by Brian Hague, CFA | Jan 3, 2023 | Economics, Risk Management, Strategy
As we enter 2023, the U.S. economy is still beset by high inflation, and the Fed’s policy response threatens to stall economic growth. A housing correction is fully underway, and there are continuing signs of cracks in an otherwise apparently robust labor market. CPI...
by Brian Hague, CFA | Oct 14, 2022 | Economics, Risk Management, Strategy
Headwinds are on the economic horizon, fueled by uncontrolled inflation, rapidly rising interest rates, a housing market correction, and signs of emerging labor market weakness. CPI is up 8.2% year over year as of September. While the headline reading is not the worst...
