by Brian Hague, CFA | Oct 7, 2024 | Economics, Enterprise Risk Management, Lending, Operational Risk Assessment, Press, Risk Appetite Assessment, Risk Management, Strategy
The big economic story for Q3 was the long-anticipated commencement of easing by the FOMC. Contrary to popular opinion, it was not overdue. In this writer’s opinion, the magnitude of the cut – 50bp – was entirely unjustified by the prevailing data; indeed, one could...
by Brian Hague, CFA | Jul 7, 2024 | Economics, Enterprise Risk Management, Lending, Risk Appetite Assessment, Risk Management, Strategy
As with last quarter, the focus is on the labor market. The pattern of surprisingly strong nonfarm payroll releases followed by outsized downward revisions continues, such that it’s surprising that the large initial prints even produce a market reaction anymore. In...
by Brian Hague, CFA | May 22, 2024 | Economics, Enterprise Risk Management, Lending, Risk Management, Strategy
U.S. credit unions, and other financial institutions, experienced a liquidity crunch in 2023 unlike anything seen in recent years. Aggregate deposit growth for the credit union industry in 2023 was less than 2%, the lowest since before 1982. In the first quarter of...
by Brian Hague, CFA | Apr 8, 2024 | Economics, Enterprise Risk Management, Governance, Lending, Risk Management, Strategy
We once again find ourselves reversing our position on the overall direction of the economy for 2024, as the resilience of consumer activity drives surprisingly strong output growth that appears to be sustainable. That outlook is dashing hopes for Fed easing anytime...
by Brian Hague, CFA | Sep 22, 2023 | Economics, Enterprise Risk Management, Lending, Risk Management, Strategy
Our Q2 outlook called for an economic downturn commencing in 2024. However, based on the strength of more recent data, we are revising our forecast. It now appears that the Fed may succeed in engineering a soft landing, a feat that has eluded the central bank in the...
by Brian Hague, CFA | Sep 6, 2022 | Economics, Lending, Uncategorized
Those words, uttered by President George H. W. Bush in 1992, may be a harbinger of things to come, if the most recent home price data is any indication. After more than a year of widespread bubble-like increases in home prices across the U.S., the June data revealed...
