by Brian Hague, CFA | Dec 18, 2023 | Economics, Enterprise Risk Management, Risk Management, Strategy
The headline inflation rate – specifically, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) – has declined on a year-over-year basis from a peak of 8.9% in June of 2022 to 3.2% as of October, the latest reading. Last June’s inflation level was the highest since 1981. The decline has...
by Brian Hague, CFA | Sep 22, 2023 | Economics, Enterprise Risk Management, Lending, Risk Management, Strategy
Our Q2 outlook called for an economic downturn commencing in 2024. However, based on the strength of more recent data, we are revising our forecast. It now appears that the Fed may succeed in engineering a soft landing, a feat that has eluded the central bank in the...
by Brian Hague, CFA | Jul 7, 2023 | Economics, Enterprise Risk Management, Risk Appetite Assessment, Risk Management, Strategy
With the media-manufactured “systemic banking crisis” apparently behind us, the bond market has returned its focus to inflation data. As a result, yields have returned to near March levels, and the inversion in the curve has reached its steepest point this cycle....
by Brian Hague, CFA | Apr 10, 2023 | Economics, Enterprise Risk Management, Strategy
Data from the first quarter of 2023 is beginning to show cracks in the U.S. economy’s performance. While headline inflation has receded, households are still beset with higher prices. The Fed has continued to firm monetary policy, but market interest rates declined in...
by Scott Hood | Mar 31, 2023 | Economics, Enterprise Risk Management, Governance, Risk Management, Strategy
Considering the recent events around the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and other major banks, now is a good time to revisit your assessment of liquidity and interest rate risks and, even more importantly, validate your responses for mitigating those exposures. So,...
by Brian Hague, CFA | Jan 3, 2023 | Economics, Risk Management, Strategy
As we enter 2023, the U.S. economy is still beset by high inflation, and the Fed’s policy response threatens to stall economic growth. A housing correction is fully underway, and there are continuing signs of cracks in an otherwise apparently robust labor market. CPI...
