by Brian Hague, CFA | Jan 2, 2025 | Economics, Enterprise Risk Management, Lending, Regulatory, Risk Appetite Assessment, Risk Management, Strategy
The new year will bring a new administration in Washington, D.C., and with it, a new set of economic policies. What will those policies mean for the economy? Well, as The Who sang, “Meet the new boss – same as the old boss.” We’re in the unique position of swearing in...
by Brian Hague, CFA | Oct 7, 2024 | Economics, Enterprise Risk Management, Lending, Operational Risk Assessment, Press, Risk Appetite Assessment, Risk Management, Strategy
The big economic story for Q3 was the long-anticipated commencement of easing by the FOMC. Contrary to popular opinion, it was not overdue. In this writer’s opinion, the magnitude of the cut – 50bp – was entirely unjustified by the prevailing data; indeed, one could...
by Brian Hague, CFA | Jul 7, 2024 | Economics, Enterprise Risk Management, Lending, Risk Appetite Assessment, Risk Management, Strategy
As with last quarter, the focus is on the labor market. The pattern of surprisingly strong nonfarm payroll releases followed by outsized downward revisions continues, such that it’s surprising that the large initial prints even produce a market reaction anymore. In...
by Brian Hague, CFA | May 22, 2024 | Economics, Enterprise Risk Management, Lending, Risk Management, Strategy
U.S. credit unions, and other financial institutions, experienced a liquidity crunch in 2023 unlike anything seen in recent years. Aggregate deposit growth for the credit union industry in 2023 was less than 2%, the lowest since before 1982. In the first quarter of...
by Brian Hague, CFA | Apr 8, 2024 | Economics, Enterprise Risk Management, Governance, Lending, Risk Management, Strategy
We once again find ourselves reversing our position on the overall direction of the economy for 2024, as the resilience of consumer activity drives surprisingly strong output growth that appears to be sustainable. That outlook is dashing hopes for Fed easing anytime...
by Brian Hague, CFA | Jan 2, 2024 | Economics, Enterprise Risk Management, Risk Appetite Assessment, Risk Management, Strategy
“The only constant is change” is a quote that is mistakenly attributed to the Greek philosopher Heraclitus, but the misattribution doesn’t make the axiom any less true. In the 2023 Q2 report, we anticipated an economic downturn beginning in 2024. By the following...
